Five Scenarios Depicting Government Policies As a Two-Edged Sword! (Part 1)

In these times of economic uncertainty, governments under a cowering atmosphere may develop the phobia of actuating policies and regulations in a desperate attempt to contain the situation. From a global perspective, the use of policies in the form of regulations and tax breaks to influence a country’s economic position has been rave about by some transformational leaders as a form of insurance for their economies even though in some cases it transcends the rules of the international trade game or globalization in the bigger context. Whichever policies are made in country, the fact remains that government policy in terms of reality is always a two-edged sword. Unfortunately, most in the world especially the capitalist countries are resentful of government regulations and policies. They see these policies as a threat to the progress of capitalism and also to their freedom. However, much as it appears to be a threat in some aspect, there are beneficiation dimensions when its economics of social cost and social benefits are evaluated. It is in the light of these fundamental truths that this article seeks to discuss the convolution surrounding the two-edged nature from the following scenarios and perspectives: national security versus international trade, nationalization versus de-nationalization, investors and consumer protection versus Innovation, monetary and fiscal policies versus Politics and finally environmental protection commitment versus Nash equilibrium.

Scenario 1 – National Security Vs International Trade: Interestingly, the trade-off between economic gains, national security and sovereignty presents a very dicey situation especially in this era of terrorism rise and threats of rising military prowess of certain countries. Thus, governments in some instances are eclipsed between national security defense and their policies governing international trade. A paradigm of the case is when a country incapacitated by financial crisis or debt is torn between fulfilling budget constraints and national security. Take the case of United States or United Kingdom. In this epoch of mounting budget deficit when United States or United Kingdom has to choose between buying warplanes or national defense equipments from a low-cost country such as China or Brazil as against securing such gadgets from manufacturers in the United States or the EU at a higher price. Obviously, these countries will pay the higher price of increased budget deficits if they decide to buy the planes from manufacturers on its own soil. Nevertheless, they gain because national security and sovereignty is protected. On the other hand, if these countries should buy the defense items from manufacturers in China or Brazil, there is reduced budget deficit but national security is threatened. Subsequently, the decision on the path to take will depend on the contribution margin of the cost to be incurred with respect to the budget deficit versus the highly valued national security. Strangely, the scenario of national security and trade is absurd when social cost and social benefit are assessed from the perspective of international trade in Arms. International trade in Arms which used to be antipathized is fast becoming an acceptable norm in globalization. The driving force being threat of invasion and some countries desire for military prowess. Over the years the world has witnessed Arms being sold openly by some developed and developing nations to other nations as part of international trade. Information also has it that technology is being sold secretly to nations to augment their military capability. The curiosity surrounding such esoteric trade in Arms becomes more stronger when the investors from one country choose to export technology to another country as part of selling services to the country or customers or partners in that country. Regrettably, trading in Arms and secret technology puts the national security of the seller country and recipient country all at risk. On one hand, the technological secrets of seller country may be exposed to the recipient (buyer) country. On the other hand and in the long term, the seller country may become a threat to the recipient country because of an inherent access to its security intelligence. Undoubtedly, the security of the world is being marred by sale in Arms and secret technology both of which implicitly associates with the much dreaded activity “terrorism”. In fact, the world cannot be a safe place until the esoteric sale in Arms and secret technology is constrained and strongly repudiated by United Nations prompting every nation to come clean on any nefarious trade in Arms and nuclear technology. People are of the view that such an agenda is too ambitious and inconceivable judging from the fact that some nations have resisted similar attempts by the UN in the past. Nations cryptically trading in nuclear technology tend to be the most perpetrators of this kind of trade. I am an advocate of nuclear technology application in nuclear reactors for production of energy for social beneficiation purposes and will always identify with governments policies that promote that. However, any policy that circumvents energy production for beneficiation but promotes usage for antagonistic purposes is absolutely unacceptable and deleterious. Enriching Uranium by centrifuging for production of nuclear bombs is detestable and the world must boldly speak against it. United States is doing well by speaking against it but it needs the massive support of the whole world to deal with this growing menace. It is possible those countries that fall into the domain of nuclear technology abusers may feel isolated because of UN sanctions against them. They will try to placate their anger by pursuing policies that might enrage the world. But the world should not be perturbed by such tendencies and must still maintain the sanctions. Some contend that sanctions are not working but I am of the view that sanctions backed by constructive criticism and dialogue will immobilize these autocratic regimes and bring their unpopular pursuits to an end. I also believe the spread of democracy will definitely catch up on the whole world and help eradicate the bad “nuts” in the system. Only time will prove this assertion right. We are the world and we must not let a few dictate our future and freedom. Freedom is a gift from God and we must enjoy it.

Generally, sale in Arms and technological secrets has made the world unsafe and implicitly exacerbated terrorism in the world. Additionally, international trade restrictions have broken down because of some nation’s policies of self-centeredness and indifference to safety and freedom of the world. Sadly, some nations policies of neo-colonialism or economic imperialism for solidification of their national security pose a threat not only to international trade but also to the spread of democracy in the world.

Scenario 2 – Nationalization Vs De-nationalization: Presently, there is the conglomerate effort by governments of some major economies to propagate global regulations for the financial markets and banks so as to prevent a repetition of the global financial meltdown. To some analyst this is called nationalization and an infringement on the current supposed de-nationalization existing in the capitalist economies. Again, on the pessimistic side of this issue are the analysts who see the predisposition by the leaders as protectionism and an inordinate desire to influence the economy to the detriment of market efficiency. They also see such tendencies as generally not resonating with stakeholders’ interest especially when the country concerned is of capitalistic proclivity. Howbeit, government regulations whether in financial, educational, health and industrial sectors suggest a form of influence of globalization and have several connotations associated with it. Unfortunately, in a period of economic uncertainty, governments may assume a desultory characteristic which makes them more susceptible to enforcement of regulations in educational, health, financial and even the industrial sectors. For example, the current administration of the United States governments and certain western countries are compelled to press for policies and regulations to control some salient sectors of the economy including financial and health center because of the current global economic uncertainty which has incapacitated a lot of families and made them liabilities on the government. It is true that times are hard and government will want to empathize with the masses by pressing for regulations. However, skeptics are worried about how far the regulations can go and its projected negative impacts on the market and most importantly factors of production. Again, such pursuits are seen as an inclination towards nationalization as against de-nationalization of the market economy. In America some economists have described the handling of the GM financial crisis issue as a proclivity towards nationalization. Recall when GM filed for bankruptcy, the government provided more than $50 billion (tax payers money) for its redemption besides taking a stake of 60% ownership of the company and the replacement of its CEO with a government approved one. Coincidentally, further down the road pockets of nationalization has taken place in the country. For example the interstate rail service takeover to form Amtrak and also Airport Security management take over by the federal government after September 11. All these are forms of nationalization that has beneficiation. For example, the recent changes in airport security with regards to whole body scanning of travelers infringe on our privacy and freedom yet it can be effectual in preventing terrorist from getting into flights to cause harm. Should we blame the government for nationalizing the airport security? No. Must we applaud the government for instituting the measure of effective scanning? Yes. What would have happened if the government had not taken over the management of airport security after the September 11, 2001 disaster? In fact, it is quite impossible for a country to exist without any pockets nationalization. In this period of financial failures and global uncertainty, at least some pockets of nationalization even in free-capitalist countries is inevitable. A little nationalization will not kill even though extreme nationalization like what is happening in Venezuela and certain parts of Africa is unacceptable and vicious. Currently, the question that is being debated is whether the domain of nationalization includes turning a private sector indirectly into a public good. For example the allegation currently by some that the health sector is being made a public good with the presumption of the act being synonymous with nationalization. Others believe that government intervention in the health sector may not correct the failing health system. I am of the view that the health sector will only become a public good if only all in America including illegals benefit from it and there is no way to prevent anyone unqualified from benefiting from it. Also there is immense additional cost to be incurred here if checks and balances are not in place. Unfortunately, after much publicized and heated debate in congress, a consensus has still not been reached on the reform proposals. There is an argument of an increased role by government in the sector affecting efficiency in the sector. Another contention is that employers will be burdened with huge healthcare costs. Whatever the healthcare reforms package will entail, it must be judged based on the economic principle of social cost and social benefit and not on the economics of externalities.

Globally, the predilection by some countries for international regulations for banks has been fueled by the recent developments of bad debts at Dubai Bank and also the huge national debts or financial crisis of some European countries with Iceland and Greece at the front. Though, the debt belongs to the individual countries yet it is turning to be a pervasive problem with consequences likely to affect Europe and the rest of the world. The coming of the EU to the aid of Greece will go a long way to reveal the strength of the relationship between the EU countries and the authenticity of the cordiality governing them. Meanwhile, Greece in order to win the approbation of the EU and satisfy the European Stability Pact that enjoins all members to maintain a debt level of 3% of GDP has decided to take some austerity measures including but not limited to VAT increases, freeze on pension funds and working rights limitations, reduction in healthcare benefits. Though this is going to create hardships for the people of Greece with upsurge in social unrest in the coming days, authorities emphasized the measures as being the heady way for the country to deal with its mounting debt and refinance its 17 billion debt bond. In addition to the Stability Pact, the EU may argue that there is too huge a price to pay to remedy Greece from its predicaments. Perhaps, the EU has decided to follow the footsteps of the United States where generally the rescue of states in financial crisis by the federal government is not popular because the tax payer prefers not to bear the cost of a state’s mismanagement. On few occasions the federal government may come to the aid of a state only if there is a justification for that. Sorry to say, EU is not considering the effect their inaction will have on the confidence of the member countries. But the facts are clear. There are a number of EU countries hanging in an imbalance with regards to debts and economic problems. So if the EU cannot extend some minimal level of credit to Greece to help ease the country’s debt burden then it presupposes in future any EU country that finds itself in a similar situation will be allowed to go bankrupt and collapse. In fact, some level of credit should have been extended by the EU to Greece to show to the world the strength of the Union and the care for its members. Indeed, this is a testing time for the EU and the Union’s ability to deal with such problems will go a long way to substantiate the competency of their unity and to brighten the way forward. Perchance any EU intervention to remedy the Greece situation is being categorized as nationalization by the Union.

Finally, it is feared globally that more of such bad debts and financial failures will occur in the near future with repercussions of consumer and investor confidence reduction if nothing is done. Watch out for part 2 of this article which discusses this phobia.

Natural Resources Endure Shorter Recessionary Bust

Resource investors were not immune to the pain of the latest recession, but, for them, it was more like tearing off a Band-Aid than slowly peeling one away.

The S&P Global 1200, a stock index providing a reliable measure of worldwide equity markets, peaked on Oct. 31, 2007. We all know what happened next: financial crisis, fear and economic decline. The bottom for global equities, or at least what we hope was the bottom, arrived some 16 months later. Natural resources stocks took a similar plunge, but more rapidly. The S&P Global Natural Resources Index, comprising 60 of the largest energy, metals and agricultural product companies around the world, peaked on May 19, 2008, and hit bottom (we hope) on Nov. 20, 2008, a mere six months after the slide began.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is generally regarded as an authority on U.S. recessions, says the United States entered recession in December 2007. Stock markets around the world gradually began to reflect this through lower prices, although recession wasn’t a foregone conclusion at the time. Even the NBER only makes an official announcement about the beginning of a recession long after it is under way.

Against this recessionary backdrop, resource stocks continued to climb well into 2008. Conventional wisdom tells us an approaching recession should have brought the opposite result. Resources stocks are cyclical, and economic weakness would ordinarily be a grave threat.

However, the effect was delayed for resources stocks because crude oil prices steadily rose throughout 2007 and the first half of 2008. Oil and gas prices heavily impact most natural resources stock funds (and indices) because the energy sector typically accounts for about two-thirds of these funds and benchmarks.

The reasons for oil’s price spike in 2008 were heavily debated, probably because of the anger it generated – recall your frustration at the pump as gasoline approached $5 per gallon. Some believed the prices resulted from high demand or expected future demand from the fast-growing Chinese and Indian economies. Others pointed to supply disruptions in Nigeria and Iraq or speculative investment in oil futures. The Organziation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was blamed for restraining its production levels in an effort to keep prices high and maintain profit margins trimmed by a declining U.S. dollar.

In reality, oil prices were probably high because of some combination of these factors and a growing consensus that long-term demand growth was going to outpace capacity. Whatever theory you accept, the fact is that oil prices were elevated, propping up resources stocks long after recession expectations had taken hold.

Crude oil peaked at more than $147 per barrel during trading on July 11, 2008, before plunging to under $31 on Dec. 22, 2008. Natural gas peaked at around the same time and suffered a decline almost as spectacular. Not surprisingly, natural resources stock portfolios heavily invested in companies locating, extracting and producing these resources went for a ride as well. The S&P Global Natural Resources Index lost 57 percent, peak to trough, over a stretch lasting 185 days.

By comparison, the S&P Global 1200 shed 59.2 percent, peak to trough. It took 495 days.

From December 2007 through the first quarter of 2010, a period covering the entire recession and part of the subsequent recovery, resources stocks actually performed better than global equities, as measured by the S&P indices. Excluding dividends, global equities declined 25.1 percent, while resources declined 20.7 percent. Part of the disparity may result from differences in the sizes of the companies in the two indices. The Global Natural Resources Index contains larger companies than the Global 1200 index, and thus may be less volatile. The strong showing for resources was nonetheless surprising, and occurred despite a complete lack of price recovery in natural gas, where innovation in drilling techniques over the last decade has expanded potential supply and alleviated long-term scarcity concerns.

Cyclical stocks such as resources generally exaggerate the market’s movements, but this was not true of resources stocks during the recession. Resources stocks lived up to their reputation of fierce swings, but did not surpass the losses experienced by global equities. Further, when pessimism and panic finally gave way to rationality, and the world’s major stock markets slowly rebounded, resources began their ascent several months before global equities did.

What kept resources from experiencing a longer and deeper bust?

While large swaths of the Western world were dealing with negative gross domestic product, some resource-hungry developing nations were still growing – and quickly.

China, second in energy consumption only to the United States, managed more than 9 percent GDP growth in 2008 and close to 9.5 percent in 2009. Even in the depths of the recession in the early quarters of 2009, China’s economy was growing at a rate greater than 6 percent.

Within weeks of the resources bottom, China unveiled a $586 billion economic stimulus program ramping up spending on housing, infrastructure, agriculture, health care and social welfare. It was designed to prop up demand and keep China’s economy growing at a high single-digit rate.

The program was good news for resources. Fast-growing economies burn through significantly more resources; they need materials to build factories and energy to power machines. The government was routing yuan directly to housing and infrastructure, two of the most resource-intensive sectors. The spending also supplied the expanding middle class with better jobs and increased payments from social safety nets. This meant more citizens with the ability to afford housing, or to move to better housing, and more materials and energy required in the future to build homes and keep the lights on.

The Chinese economy wasn’t alone in maintaining robust growth during the global recession. India’s economy grew at 7.4 percent in 2008 and 6.1 percent in 2009. Back-to-back fiscal stimulus packages in December 2008 and January 2009, aimed at dampening the effect of the global slowdown, boosted infrastructure and real estate spending.

Inflation expectations were also in natural resources’ corner. The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 authorized the U.S. Treasury to spend up to $700 billion to help ailing financial institutions. Governments across Europe followed suit with similar but smaller pledges to support their banking systems. The next year, the United States was back on its spending spree, with a $787 billion fiscal stimulus to kick-start the slowing economy. Fears of surging government debt in the United States and Europe led investors to seek hard assets to protect their purchasing power. Gold prices actually increased in 2008, a year in which double-digit commodity price declines were standard, and many price declines approached or exceeded 50 percent.

As precipitous as the decline was for resources stocks during the recession, it could have been worse. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, a 30-stock sample from economically sensitive industries such as automobiles, chemicals and machinery, declined roughly 74 percent between its peak and trough closing prices.

Factors such as continued economic growth in developing Asia, stimulus plans geared toward “shovel-ready” infrastructure projects, and inflation expectations likely offset the cyclicality of resources stocks during the recession. The biggest difference between the performance of natural resources stocks and the stock market as a whole was not really overall performance, but the timing and length of decline. The fall of resources stocks was more compressed and more dramatic. It wasn’t as drawn-out, but that didn’t make it any less painful for investors.

China and the Global Recession – Part 1 – The Domestic Situation

The consensus of mainstream China analysts is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a unified entity that is destined to guide China into a new golden where it will enjoy global superpower status. This sanguine narrative maybe challenged as the current global economic recession has served to elucidate the genuine fragility of China’s political economy. Stability in the immediate future, let alone, decades from the present is not a fact to be taken for granted, but a likely possibility to be continuously observed and evaluated.

The Chinese leadership is less of a cohesive organism than a mixture of overlapping and competing regional, ideological, and institutional interests. This leaves China vulnerable to conflict. The glue that binds the various CCP factions and the monied elites is a vast patronage system made possible by 20 years of unprecedented economic growth, no Maoism or a constitutional “balance of powers”. The Chinese elite are conscious of this. Even President Hu Jintao recognized the importance of various factions to maintaining national stability by designating two possible successors from divergent ideological perspectives, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. The CCP has also been touting the phrase “zhengdi tuandui” (team of rivals) in the media, in reference to political cooperation, which seem to be part of President Hu’s larger goal of creating a “Harmonious Society”. China’s ability to realize this harmony is heavily dependent on the financial liquidity that feeds its “Leviathan”.

Most sources will site China as the third largest economy in the world, just behind Japan; however, according to the World Bank and IMF (2007 figures), China has the world’s second largest economy, if Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The PRC (People’s Republic of China) has $1.9 trillion USD in foreign exchange reserves, which provides it with a measure of security against the current global recession.

Unlike the world’s two largest economies, America and Japan, China will likely avoid a domestic recession, but it has not escaped unscathed. From October to December last year, a collapse in exports only exacerbated the slowdown in China’s growth already occurring since January 2008. The latter was actually purposely created by the implementation of domestic banking policies intended to fight inflation. By the 4th quarter of 2008 growth had slowed to a meager 6.8 percent, and the Chinese stock market had also lost 65 percent of its value (roughly $3 trillion USD).

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, recently made the optimistic prediction, that despite the economic downturn, China will see an 8 percent economic growth rate in 2009. Even an 8 percent growth rate would still fall under the decade average of 11 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), being less assured, projected China’s 2009 growth at just 6.7 percent. It should be remembered that Chinese figures should always be viewed with healthy skepticism due to weaknesses in data collection and ambitious local officials seeking to aggrandize themselves before their superiors. Counterintuitively, some analyst actually believes, overall, China routinely understates growth to avoid the appearance of an economic bubble.

It is likely that the source of Wen’s confidence is the Chinese government’s proposed stimulus plan and the current state of the banking system. Chinese banks have limited international exposure; being less integrated, they were not as affected by the financial crisis. The PRC’s $584 billion USD (~4 trillion Yuan) stimulus package is roughly 6% of its total GDP. The package will focus on training migrant workers, R&D and improving infrastructure. There is also a special emphasis placed on improving domestic companies’ international competitiveness by streamlining the approval process for these companies to make foreign acquisitions, especially in automotives; textiles; energy; electronics and machinery sectors.

China’s banks are funding this corporate expansion by lending at a higher rate than at any time within the last year. It is expected that Chinese corporate investment of $16.3 billion last year could double this year. Globally the value of mergers and acquisitions has dropped by over 35%. Chinese companies have particularly focused on buying up billions of dollars in strategic natural resource assets in Iran, Brazil, Venezuela, and France. The Chinese government has used loans in Russia, Brazil, and Venezuela to ensure state owned energy companies secure deals. For example, China will supply up to $25 billion in loans to Russia in exchange for long term deals for the China National Petroleum Corporation. This will likely spur further concerns over future availability and price of these resources in nations that are in competition for them.

This is a sea-change in activity considering the attitude of the CCP in 2007. In that year, the CCP established credit quotas that domestic banks were subject to and they were continually adjusted upwards by the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, as inflation became a significant concern. Exports grew only 9.4 percent for 2008 a downward trend from the decade’s average of 20 per cent. Export growth in January 2009 was -17.5 percent, industrial production also dropped. After the conditions of the last two years, the state-owned banks (SOBs) are quite willing to follow the stimulus mandate to increase lending and they also cannot now be held responsible for future nonperforming loans. Much of the stimulus money will be cycled through the banks and loaned to State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) and local governments. The CCP Standing Committee, partially in response to current and anticipated public pressure, have already made vague comments about the need for more transparency in how the stimulus package is spent, to head off corruption that could lead to public outrage.

China’s financial liquidity is largely a result of its people’s exceptionally high savings rate; China’s households save nearly 25% of their disposable, although they get low or even negative rates of return from the banks and financial markets. The recent decrease in exports has inversely effected employment, making the situation of the most vulnerable citizens precarious. The Asian Development Bank has found that China has one of Asia’s highest income inequality rates. In 2004, the combined income of the richest 20 percent being 11.4 times the aggregate income of the poorest 20 percent. These numbers have gotten progressively worse every year since. China has been trying to grow its domestic market, but consumption was low before the global recession and savings high due to the lack of social safety nets. There are three year plan to provide universal health care and education. Currently, Chinese consumer spending accounts for only 35 percent of China’s GDP, whereas in America it is two-thirds.

By February of 2009, there were 20 million unemployed migrant workers, which was double the estimate of December 2008; and an additional 6 to 7 million low skilled rural residents are expected to join the migrant workforce, as many multinationals are cutting back or shutting down factories. For the employed, raises in salary have fallen for the first time in 4 years. The only upshot is that wage deflation somewhat halts China’s recent loss in price competitiveness regional revivals, such as Vietnam, Philippines, and Cambodia.

There has been much talk in the Western media over the last year concerning Chinese government crackdowns on ethnic minorities in the provinces of Xinjiang and Tibet, but this behavior is not isolated to minorities on the periphery of China Proper; to the contrary, the majority of these actions seems to be in response to the uptick in “mass incidents” in Han majority areas.

The Chinese government has hired more than 40,000 state employees to police the 250 million Chinese that are on the internet in an effort known as the “Golden Shield Project”. Thousands of websites have been banned or censored and even text messages have been filtered. Many analysts supposed the increase in arrest and crackdowns were temporary, due to sensitivity around the Olympics Games, but this has proven incorrect. The crackdowns are directed at any criticism of the government that could cause poplar discontent, such as the “Tainted Milk Scandal” and last springs’ Sichuan Earthquakes, as well as any talk of democracy, Taiwan, Tibet, and other such contentious issues. It maybe that this is a two pronged approach, as Premier Wen, in early March, made his first internet address to the online Chinese community to encourage controlled discussion as an alternative to citizens possibly taking to the streets of China’s major cities.

The Chinese government has not published official figures on “mass incidents”, a CCP term for riots; demonstrations; and protests since 2004. In that year 74,000 incidents were recorded, a 28% change over the previous year. Foreign analysts, drawing on Chinese sources, estimated the 2005 figure to have been 80,000-85,000. Considering the trend line, starting from 1993, there is no reason to think the number of incidents has not increased at the historic average of 20% a year. The weak performance of the PAP in the pre-Olympic riots in Tibet, which resulted in the PAP forces reportedly losing control of the situation and forcing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to become involved, surely caused alarm inside the CCP and the military. In January 2009, President Hu gave an ominous warning that the People’s Armed Police (PAP), that they will face difficult challenges ahead.

There has also been an increase in the number of “black houses,” unofficial jails for citizens that exercise their right to petition the national government in Beijing, a last desperate attempt to addresses grievances with provincial officials peacefully. The Chinese government denies the existence of these jails, but citizens are being abducted off the street, usually at the behest of local party cadre, in or in route to Beijing, to prevent them from filing embarrassing appeals. The state media has reported that 10 million such petitions have been filed in the last five years on complaints as diverse as unjust taxation, illegal land seizures and unpaid wages.

The fundamentals of the Chinese economy may be strong, but they are not “harmonious”. The history of China is instructive; in that, most revolutions in China have come from rural areas in bad economic times when the central government is seen as impotent, having lost the “Mandate of Heaven”. This “right of rebellion” against an unjust or ineffective rule has been a part of Chinese political philosophy since the Zhou Dynasty (1045 BC to 256 BC). The CCP is acutely aware of this history; its own origins lie in a rural populist movement led by a charismatic leader against a corrupt and incompetent regime. The CCP has also been a diligent study of how perestroika and glasnost led to the fall of the Soviet Communist Party.

The current global economic crisis has revealed significant cracks in China’s political and economic system. Harmony will be heavily dependent on the length of the global downturn and how adaptive and not reactive the CCP is to changing circumstances. It will also be contingent upon if the CCP earnestly intends to make substantive movements toward greater freedom of speech, tort reform, restraining graft and banking reform. If recent overture from the party elites are just a guise designed to ride out any potential threats to party power by strengthening security forces and drawing out potential enemies, this could be catastrophic, especially if the party’s patronage system’s life-blood does indeed dry up, corruption could increase in tandem with poverty. These twin forces would disproportionately strike rural areas, where most Chinese still live. In this situation the CCP’s “Great Wall” against the people will be the security forces. Due to the fractious nature of Chinese politics, it is quite possible that some members of the elite, especially of the tuanpai (populist faction) or even the military, could exploit this situation to their own political advantage. They could use populist appeals targeted to the urban poor and rural peasants to weaken their rivals. Hopefully the global economic downturn will be short lived or those who keep predicting China’s inevitable success will have to hedge their bets on the CCP reforming itself in a crisis. Historically, power does not willingly concede when under threat.

By Collin Spears, Chief Foreign Policy Correspondent,
Washington D.C. Bureau

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