Confirmation Bias

One of the most important things that impacts us in personal, professional, and financial life is an effect called confirmation bias. Put more simply, this is a tendency for people to only seek out information that confirms what they already think. In many cases, people will examine the same information and come to wildly different conclusions because of their internal biases. Naturally, this makes objective thought and analysis extremely difficult to perform since we are not always the best judge of ourselves.

This effect becomes especially dangerous when it enters the financial arena. When evaluating investment strategies, many people (such as Robert Merton and Myron Scholes of Long-Term Capital Management) fail to examine possibilities that lay outside of their theory. Many hedge funds and derivatives traders create highly complex formula’s based on many assumptions that are usually true, but not always true. These financial models typically use large amounts of leverage, and are prone to tremendous losses if market movements do not match the model assumptions. Another iteration of this self-delusion is the tremendous run-up in housing prices that was based on the assumption home prices would never go down. There was ample evidence to indicate that housing prices could not increase forever, but it was completely ignored in favor of self-delusion by the government agencies, financial institutions, and borrowers who perpetuated the financial crisis.

The impact of confirmation bias also enters the political sphere on a regular basis. There are Nobel laureate economists in favor of higher taxes who claim to have evidence in support of their position and Nobel laureate economists in favor of lower taxes who also have evidence in support of their claim. When the government funds research studies, it is not surprising that the results of the study almost always come back confirming the original theory or hypothesis. Other ways that this phenomenon works its way into the political landscape is through metrics that are impossible to prove or disprove. One of the most famous is an ambiguous employment metric of “jobs created or saves”. It is impossible to objectively define a “saved” job, so the intellectual delusion is perpetuated.

The confirmation bias effect has even found its way into the scientific domain, as demonstrated most prominently in the climate science movement. What used to be called “global warming” has now been changed “climate change”. This makes every observation of temperature a “confirmation” of the hypothesis since the climate by its very nature is always changing. It should not come as any sort of surprise that the so-called “consensus” concerning climate change was completely fictional. It only resulted from suppressing voices of dissent and stifling debate so that the self-delusion of confirmation bias could continue without restraint. If the science was so strong, then it should be able to withstand a rigorous debate. If the proponents of the theory are not willing to debate, then it stands to reason that the science is not very strong.

In the end, it is and always will be extremely difficult to be objective. As astute individuals, we must learn to recognize the impacts of confirmation bias in ourselves and in the world around us. Since most of us do not possess the ability to change the world, we must squarely focus on the things that we do have the power to change… namely ourselves. When making an important decision, it is imperative to ‘step back’ and determine whether there is something we haven’t thought of that could squash our plans. By actively avoiding the bias of confirmation, it will help us to make more informed decisions and live a more fulfilled life.

How Will The Euro Debt Crisis Affect Property Prices?

Many factors have led to the Euro Debt Crisis. First, the US economy remains sluggish, with unemployment rates hovering above 9.1% as of third quarter of 2011. Demand for goods and services remain at an all-time low.

Across the Atlantic, Iceland’s entire banking system collapsed in 2008. The Icelandic recession then sparked a cascade of financial crises that would rock the economies of Ireland, Portugal and, most especially, Greece two years later.

The problem of these economies is that their debts have ballooned to such high levels, their governments couldn’t even pay the interest, much less the principal. Credit default loomed as an inevitable bitter solution.

Sounding the alarm

Fortunately for Ireland, Portugal and Greece, they all belong to a formidable economic block known as the Eurozone. Soon after these countries’ governments sounded the alarm, the EU and the IMF came to their aid with a bail-out package.

Ireland received as much as 85 billion euros to rescue its ailing banks.

Portugal’s economy went on the verge of bankruptcy because of excessive government spending and risky debt creation. These events were further worsened by credit rating agencies’ speculations, which downgraded Lisbon’s rating overnight. The EU and the IMF shelled out 78 billion euros to bail Portugal out of this crisis.

Greek crisis

The case with Greece is much more complicated. Like Portugal, massive budget deficit and failing to pay its debts almost led to a credit default. Athens was given a bailout package amounting to 110 billion euros in 2010. In 2011, a second bailout package of 109 billion euros has been laid out.

The loans came with a heavy price. Greece must now adopt a number of harsh austerity measures to improve its market outlook. Job cuts and high taxes suddenly became the burden of every Greek. Despite all these, there is still no guarantee that Greece will not default in the end.

Ireland and Portugal are still reeling from their credit downgrade.

But there is a silver lining in all of these events.

Property prices: the silver lining

With many businesses closing shop and home rentals going down, property prices have dropped almost instantly. If there is ever a good opportunity for foreign investors to come in, now is the perfect time.

The price of one ritzy villa – complete with swimming pool, sauna, and private gym – in a prime residence area Portugal has been cut by as much as 57%. In fact, property in many areas of Europe has become so affordable, a London-based development and property search company has reported a ten-fold increase in property inquiries in Italy alone.

In Windsor, private equity investor David Hammond bought four properties in Portugal because the prices were so cheap and the properties in such good condition, he just couldn’t resist. He added that he would have had to pay twice as much for the same property had he bought them before the recession.

This has become the trend all over Europe.

Where to buy

Of course, the great European bargain doesn’t come without hassle. The governments of Greece, Portugal and Italy have either increased their property taxes or revised foreign ownership laws, in response to the real estate rush.

In Portugal, however, the process of owning a property has been streamlined to better meet the demands of a hungry market. The rules are fairly straightforward, and the fees are clearly listed down before a prospective buyer starts shopping for real estate.

General consensus among estate agents says that a Portugal property is the best value for money. Not only are they more affordable than those in other European countries, the properties are also often found in places with stunning beauty such as in the Silver Coast and in Algarve.

10 Crucial Steps Out of Crisis

A crisis is defined as a time of intense difficulty or danger. In the case of diseases, it is the turning point of a disease, when it becomes clear whether the patient will recover or not. It is evident in the definition that a crisis is not a desirable state. One would choose not to have to solve a crisis and a live a crisis-free life but that is not possible. Daily you meet crisis of varying shapes, forms and proportions. Some are individual (affecting you personally) and some are of a national or global coverage such as the ongoing fight with the AIDS epidemic. The goal is to find the quickest and most effective method of bringing the state of affairs back to normal. This alone explains the efforts from every sector of the world, be it donor community, research scientists, governments and corporate to bring a lasting solution to this one type of crisis. Your crisis may not be as prevalent as the epidemic but the fact remains that it is state you would desire to move out of. I have faced crisis after crisis in my life but I have emerged out of every crisis sharper, wiser and more experienced. Some of the crisis I faced taught me endurance, persistence, optimism and courage. While crisis situations have a lot of life lessons, one would not desire to first see a crisis then learn but learn anyhow from other people’s crisis. How does one get out of crisis? I answer the question from what I have learned under crisis below.

The Steps

1. Acknowledge that you have reached crisis point – It is not a sign of failure to acknowledge the state of affairs as it is. After all there is no situation that cannot be turned around either deliberately or by way of miracles. Simply declare that this is crisis level. Failure to acknowledge may derail the exit into normal mode as everyone feels it is business as usual. Make every citizen or employee know the nature of the crisis and how it affects them. Alcoholics that refused to say the statement “I am an alcoholic” fail to move out of alcoholism. Non admittance is living in denial of the facts even though they are as clear as noonday. Your affirmation will then change at a later stage as your affirm the new you. Acknowledgment is for the purpose of finding the help you require.

2. Establish the nature and category of crisis – Who is affected by the crisis? What is the general extent of the crisis? Is it affecting just the households next to you or it has become an epidemic of high proportions. The extent and nature of the crisis determines the response strategy. Life threatening crisis requires faster movement; move by instinct and save the life under threat. By establishing the extent of the crisis you are able to determine the level of reporting back and human resource mobilization to help ease or end the crisis. Every crisis is unique, every problem is different. You will not prescribe the same medication on a persistent migraine as you would on a minor headache.

3. Identify the root causes of the crisis – To know the cause of a disease is certainly half the cure. It does not benefit you to fight flames in a fire as opposed to closing the container that is fueling the fire. Similarly in crisis setups, problems and conflict and anxiety may all be flames. You need to know why the organization or country is where it is. Be frank with the reasons why. If you shy away from the actual reasons it maybe a total waste of valuable time. Put all the cards on the table, undress the crisis breaking it into the individual components that originated and grew the crisis. You will realize that the power of a fire is not high up on the flames but way low at the bottom where it is coming from.

4. Stop Creating Comfort in the Crisis – It is easy to acknowledge you are in a crisis and immediately find coping mechanisms in the crisis. By so doing you make everyone feel as if there is no crisis. It is the same as knowing that a person has a serious cut on the leg and is in excruciating pain then you give them the highest dosage of pain stopper. You may stop the pain momentarily but that does not disqualify the cut. Simply put; you have created temporary comfort in the crisis but you still have to face the real crisis you are hiding under the carpet.

5. Get Ideas from your team – As a leader you may not be the only one to prescribe the way out of the crisis.
You may not be the cause of the crisis after all. Your role is to get everyone to see the same thing and talk the same language. Bring people to a place of unity so that they actually take ownership of their situation. As long as you give yourself the burden of getting everyone out of the crisis, you may easily fight a losing battle as people may delay your exit strategy. Some may be benefitting from the crisis hence they stifle your efforts. A brilliant idea maybe hidden in the most unlikely team member, much lower on the structures of power.

6. Plan your exit from crisis – As discussed above, sometimes the crisis situation maybe a matter of life and death with the going of every minute threatening the life of people, in such a scenario there is no room for board meeting, or consensus. Movement is by instinct not according to an activity planner. Careful planning of the precepts and phases of the exit from crisis is important. Document every step, on each step you need to identify who is responsible and give the person a clear mandate of why their role is important. Get strategic thinkers to test your plan and identify loopholes. A plan is as strong as its weakest point. Test before you plunge or else you waste more time and money. Some solutions make increase the extent of the problem.

7. Get expert advice and help – If you do not have the skills necessary in your team or country, look beyond
your area. Call for specific people with specific competencies to come in. Calling in technocrats with the right experience in dealing with the issues will sometimes cost you less in terms of loss or damage than creating make-shift solutions which in actual fact have expiry dates. You may not have the liberty to experiment or try out amateur level solutions. Specialists are there to provide specialist services. Some of them have studied on the very subject to the highest level of study possible.

8. Revisit your financial priorities – Your crisis may not be related to finance but every crisis has an impact on your finances. You have to prioritize your expenditure in the direction of bring a normal environment back. All payments in line with bringing order and effectiveness are a priority. You may need to make sacrifices that affect a greater majority. This is the reason why everyone must be engaged to take ownership of the problem. As long as it remains the role of leaders to create a miracle out of a solution, followers will always want their luxuries as they may not share or buy-in to what leaders are doing even though it benefits them.

9. Execute your plan – Implementation – Most solutions look workable on paper. They sound good and practical until the real implementation is due. You may have run a pilot of the solution, you may have people’s buy-in and all the necessary plans in writing but if you do not carefully implement all you have purposed, the solution becomes a “nice to have”. Get everyone to account for whatever role they were given. Call for regular meetings to review progress, budgets, human resource gaps etc. Without a follow through, the crisis will rage on.

10. Communicate & Review Progress – You can never be accused of over communication. If anything sometime we put a lot of effort in creating solutions, we implement the solutions and forget to communicate the success stories and even areas where we are failing. Without adequate communication and review of progress, people will easily be discouraged thinking that they are not making any headway in redressing the crisis. Reviews and updates will keep everyone motivated and inspired. In the whole process you need to document everything for others to use the same notes as reference points in the future.

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